New Year, Old Wisdom
How the Lindy Effect can guide your decisions in 2024
What is the Lindy Effect, and how can it help guide your decisions in 2024?
The Lindy Effect is named after Lindy's deli in New York City, frequented by comedians who discussed show business and the likely predictors of success. They believed that the more TV appearances a comedian made, the more future appearances the comedian was likely to make. In effect, the longer something has survived, the more likely it is to survive in the future.
The Lindy Effect has been called the ‘reverse aging' effect. In a world of novelty, shiny new things, and the relentless pursuit of “what's next?“, the Lindy Effect says that the longer something has survived and is being used, the longer its remaining life expectancy. It’s a guide for discovering timeless principles, lessons, and content.
In his book "Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder", Nassim Taleb says this about the Lindy Effect on books:
If a book has been in print for forty years, I can expect it to be in print for another forty years. But, and that is the main difference, if it survives another decade, then it will be expected to be in print another fifty years. This, simply, as a rule, tells you why things that have been around for a long time are not "aging" like persons, but "aging" in reverse. Every year that passes without extinction doubles the additional life expectancy. This is an indicator of some robustness. The robustness of an item is proportional to its life!
I use the Lindy Effect to filter the many book recommendations I receive — I'll typically choose to read a bestseller that has been around longer than a best seller that was recently released.
I use the Lindy Effect when writing each of my blog posts — I ask myself if the post will still be relevant to my older son ten years from now, when he starts college, and in the decades beyond that when I may not be around to advise him.
What if the key to a fulfilling 2024 is not in chasing shiny new fads but in discovering timeless wisdom; in balancing immediate needs with long-term thinking; and handling recurring issues with historical insight?
The Lindy Effect is about letting the past guide you to a richer, more meaningful future. As you embark on 2024 with new plans and goals, focusing on what has endured from the past may help guide you to more sustainable and fulfilling outcomes in the future.
Good luck.
